Bangladesh's Pivot Point: Democracy, Geopolitics, and the 2026 Parliamentary Elections
Speaker: Geoffrey Macdonald, International Affairs Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; Associate, Harvard University Asia Center
Moderator: James Robson, James C. Kralik and Yunli Lou Professor of East Asian Languages and Civilizations; Harvard College Professor; Director, Harvard-Yenching Institute
Registration appreciated for planning purpose.
Abstract: On February 12, Bangladesh will hold its first parliamentary elections since a student-led uprising ended the 15-year tenure of the Awami League (AL) and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. The election results will have a profound effect on the country's democratic trajectory and geopolitical position. Over the last 18 months, Muhammad Yunus's Interim Government (IG) pursued a halting but ambitious democratic reform agenda that was saddled by Bangladesh's deeply rooted political culture of violence, illiberalism, and retribution. The next ruling party will have the opportunity to either codify the IG's democratic reforms or consolidate its own power. Furthermore, Bangladesh's political opening has reawakened Islamist political movements that the next government will need to accommodate while protecting Bangladesh's inclusive and pluralistic society. Internationally, as Bangladesh rose in geopolitical importance over the last decade, the Sheikh Hasina government utilized foreign policy "hedging" that favored India but broadly balanced between competing foreign interests. With elections looming, India is nervous that the next prime minister will not pay heed to its regional interests and the US and China are watching to see how "Bangladesh 2.0" will engage their great power competition in Asia.
Bio: Geoffrey Macdonald, Ph.D. is a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow in the United States Senate, where he is a foreign policy advisor on South Asia and other international issues for a Senator. He is also a nonresident Associate at Harvard University's Asia Center. Dr. Macdonald was the Bangladesh Country Director based in Dhaka (2018-2022) and then Senior Advisor for Bangladesh (2022-2025) at the International Republican Institute, where he oversaw a wide-ranging democracy-assistance program that included civil society capacity-building, political party strengthening, civic education, and election monitoring. He was also a Visiting Expert in the South Asia Program at the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), where he led analysis on Bangladesh. Dr. Macdonald's writing on Bangladesh has been published by Foreign Policy, the Atlantic Council, USIP, and the Council on Foreign Relations. He has briefed senior U.S. government policymakers at the White House National Security Council, U.S. State Department, U.S. Defense Department, and elsewhere on Bangladesh politics and his analysis has appeared in NPR, BBC, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Vox, and other outlets.