The Death of Strategic Ambiguity: Middle Power Survival in the New U.S.-China Cold War

Speaker: Seong-Hyon Lee, Associate, Harvard University Asia Center; Senior Fellow, George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations

Moderator: Andrew Erickson, Visiting Scholar, Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University; Professor of Strategy, China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College

Registration appreciated for planning purpose. 

Abstract: For decades, East Asian middle powers like South Korea thrived by navigating a delicate geopolitical balance—relying on the United States for security architecture while depending on China for economic prosperity. However, as the "New Cold War" intensifies, this era of "riding two boats" has abruptly ended. Faced with shifting U.S. alliance postures, escalating technology and trade frictions, and the pressing realities of nuclear deterrence on the Korean Peninsula, nations can no longer afford strategic ambiguity. This talk will explore how middle powers are being forced into strategic clarity, recalibrating their foreign policies to survive a prolonged rivalry between Washington and Beijing. Drawing on recent developments in international security, we will examine the difficult choices ahead for East Asia's most critical geopolitical fault lines.

Speaker Bio: Dr. Seong-Hyon Lee is a Senior Fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations and an Associate at the Harvard University Asia Center. He is the author of The New Cold War: U.S.-China Rivalry and the Future of Global Power (2025). He specializes in U.S.-China strategic competition, East Asian security, and North Korea and Korean Peninsula geopolitics.